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Cultural Values and Economic Priorities: The not-so-shocking Rise of Latino Support for Trump
by Andrea Silva, University of North Texas
Trends in Latino Voting Behavior
What factors explain the increasing support for Trump and other Republican candidates among Latino voters from 2016 to 2024? In less than 10 years, Trump’s support among Latinos increased by 16 points. The political behavior of Latinos underscores the salience of Latino heterogeneity in the United States. Furthermore, it shows the importance of understanding the factors influencing this change—economic concerns like inflation, job security, and cultural alignment with conservative values. Additionally, regional and subgroup differences have guided the reshaping of political allegiances, bounded by targeted messaging on immigration and economic stability.
Historical Context
“Critical issues like inflation, healthcare, and education often hold differing importance across Latino subgroups. Further, regional and cultural contexts shape how these issues are prioritized, further complicating the accuracy of national polling efforts.”
Political Scientists have actually been investigating Latino political and voting behavior for more than thirty years (Hardy Fanta 1993; De la Garza and Louis DeSipio 1996; Michelson 2003; Garcia Bedolla 2005; Segura and Bowler 2005; Barretto 2007; Garcia, Sanchez, and Peralta 2009; Abrajano and Alvarez 2011; Hajnal and Lee 2011; Fraga et al 2012; Valenzuela and Michelson 2016; Saavedra Cisneros 2017). Scholars have also shown campaigns often mistake Latinx as a monolithic group and overlook the community’s nuanced identities (Stokes 2003; Morales, Rodriguez, and Schaller 2020). Such oversimplifications (e.g., immigration as a priority or Latinos as Democrats) ignore the heterogeneity that defines the Latino electorate.
Grassroots movements, particularly during the 1970s, mobilized Latino voters and increased their electoral representation. The political landscape for Latinos has historically been shaped by external factors such as nativist movements, which promote anti-Latino policies. Despite these challenges, the resilience of the Latino electorate is evident through their continued advocacy for rights and representation, even in the face of political hurdles.
Factors Influencing Latino Support
Economic Concerns
Economic issues have been mainly shaping Latino voting behavior in recent elections. A 2024 study revealed that two-thirds of Latinx voters considered the U.S. economy to be in poor condition, a significant increase from previous years. Recent studies underscore that Latinos feel financially worse off compared to prior periods, which has become their primary concern. An April 2024 survey found that 64% of Latino voters cited economic-related issues as their top concern, with inflation and the rising cost of living (20%) and the economy (19%) consistently ranking as the top issues. Additionally, a report in November 2024 emphasized that inflation’s impact on daily life and economic choices was a significant factor in Latino voting decisions. Working-class Latino voters were drawn to Trump’s tax cuts and economic relief promises, however misguided. This underscores the frustration among Latino voters as they sought action against rising costs and economic instability.
What about Trump’s Immigration Policies?
The public, pollsters, and campaigns assumed Trump’s hardline stance on immigration policies would move Latinos Left. This actually created a paradoxical dynamic among Latino voters, as about two-thirds of Latinos in the United States are either natural-born or naturalized citizens. While many were affected by deportation efforts, about one-third of Latinos agreed with Trump’s narrative on stricter immigration controls. Almost 40% of Latinos worry about someone they love getting deported. Still, a June 2024 CBS News/YouGov poll found that a majority of Hispanic people favor the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. illegally. 42% of Latinos support building a wall or fence along the entire U.S.-Mexico border, and 38% support sending all undocumented immigrants in the U.S. back to their country of origin. These perspectives highlight the complexity of immigration as an issue within the Latino community, where individual experiences shape contrasting viewpoints.
“The increasing political engagement of Latino voters reflects a dynamic and evolving electorate. Trends in voting behavior demonstrate the importance of addressing critical issues such as economic stability and cultural values.”
Cultural Identity and Values
Cultural identity and family values emerged as another significant factor in the political shift among Latino voters. Many Latino families of Christian denominations, particularly those with strong religious beliefs, increasingly aligned with the conservative values promoted by Republicans. Concerns about government overreach into personal and familial matters also resonated with voters, strengthening their support for his promises to uphold traditional family values. Cohort effects over the past three generations of Latinos have also influenced the extent Latinos support Trump. First and second-generation immigrant Latinos, like other immigrants before them, have a particular political socialization that blends to create a unique perspective on politics in the United States.
Polling and Misperceptions
National polling on Latino voters has historically been inadequate, leading to flawed assumptions about their political preferences (Leal, Barreto, and Lee 2005; Albrajano and Alvarez 2010; Ramírez 2013; Barreto and Reny 2017). According to recent analyses by Sanchez and Tafoya, most national election polls are not designed to account for subgroup variation within the broader electorate. Low sample sizes for Latino respondents and the lack of Spanish-language survey options exacerbate this issue. As a result, polls often fail to capture the diverse perspectives within the Latino community.
Polling inaccuracies also stem from an oversimplification of Latino voter priorities. Critical issues like inflation, healthcare, and education often hold differing importance across Latino subgroups. Further, regional and cultural contexts shape how these issues are prioritized, further complicating the accuracy of national polling efforts.
Sanchez and Tafoya argue that addressing these deficiencies requires designing polling systems considering language accessibility and subgroup representation. Without such improvements, predictions about Latino voting behavior will remain limited in accuracy and scope.
Republican Rizz or Democrat clapback?
“An April 2024 survey found that 64% of Latino voters cited economic-related issues as their top concern, with inflation and the rising cost of living (20%) and the economy (19%) consistently ranking as the top issues.”
Many were quick to blame Latinos for Donald Trump’s election victory, suggesting their waning support for Democrats had cost the party the race. Although Harris performed worse with Latino voters than Joe Biden in 2020, she still garnered most of their votes in 2024. Even without the Latino shift, Trump would still have won.
It’s no surprise that Latino voters have been growing discontent regarding the performance of the Democratic leadership, particularly during the Biden-Harris administration. Many Latino voters expressed dissatisfaction with economic policies: inflation and cost of living increases. Survey after survey indicated that economic issues and inflation were of greater priority for many Latinx communities during the recent elections. As Latinos are a demographic that intersects significantly with economic vulnerability, this economic threat likely fueled their willingness to consider Trump’s message. The Democratic Party’s focus on social justice issues and identity politics may have alienated Latino voters who viewed this as deprioritizing their concerns about job security and economic stability.
The increasing political engagement of Latino voters reflects a dynamic and evolving electorate. Trends in voting behavior demonstrate the importance of addressing critical issues such as economic stability and cultural values. For political campaigns, success will depend on moving beyond monolithic assumptions and implementing strategies that resonate with Latino communities’ nuanced identities and priorities.
Andrea Silva is an Associate Professor in the Political Science Department at the University of North Texas and the Associate Director of its’ Latino/a Mexican American Studies Program. Her work focuses on immigration federalism, racial and ethnic politics, and representation in the United States. Her forthcoming book investigates how direct democracy mechanisms influence state immigration policy for immigrants. She is also the recipient of a National Science Foundation Grant, supporting her research on how state food policies shape the ability of immigrants and communities of color to access healthy and nutritious food.