Mexico’s Top Security Official Says Homicides in Sinaloa Are 42 Percent Down, But Report Says Claim is Misleading

The violent turf war in Sinaloa between Los Chapitos and La Mayiza marked its one-year anniversary last month, a conflict that has left thousands dead and thousands more missing.

This week, during one of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s press conferences, Security Minister Omar García Harfuch said that despite the ongoing fighting between the two Sinaloa Cartel factions, the arrest of key cartel operatives and coordinated efforts by Mexican authorities have helped reduce homicides in the state by 42 percent.

However, according to an investigation by Animal Político, Harfuch’s claim is misleading, as it relies on a narrow timeframe that skews the data presented by federal officials.

To support the supposed 42 percent drop in homicides in Sinaloa, Animal Político reported that Mexican authorities compared the number of murders recorded in June 2025 to those in September of the same year.

Although there was a decline, the outlet stated that this is a deceptive comparison because it measures two different months within the same year, rather than comparing the same periods across different years, which is the standard for reliable analysis.

García Harfuch also failed to mention that in September 2025, Sinaloa ranked as the fourth state with the highest number of homicide victims, accounting for 6.7 percent of all murders nationwide.

So far this year, homicides have increased by 170 percent compared to the same period between January and September in 2024.

Similarly, data collected by other Mexican news outlets show that violence in Sinaloa has remained at historically high levels and, at times, has worsened.

Noroeste, a local news outlet in northern Mexico, has been tracking the violence since the conflict between Los Chapitos and La Mayiza erupted on September 9, 2024. Using official sources, information from search collectives, and its own field reporting, the outlet has compiled a daily count of homicides and disappearances.

Based on its findings, Noroeste reported that June 2025 was the most violent month in the state since the war began, with 241 homicides recorded. Compared to June 2024, three months before the conflict started, that figure represents a 412 percent increase.

According to data from Mexico’s National Executive Secretariat of the Public Security System (SESNSP), between January and September 2025, Sinaloa recorded 1,302 homicide victims. This marks a 170 percent increase compared to the same period in 2024, when 481 homicide victims were registered.

In addition to the sharp rise in homicides, the independent think tank México Evalúa, which monitors the quality and effectiveness of Mexican public policies, ranked Sinaloa as the fourth state with the most homicides recorded so far in 2025. It also reported that Sinaloa is among the top three states with the highest growth in homicides and other crimes, such as business theft and vehicle theft.

For her part, Marcela Figueroa, executive secretary at SESNSP, said that nationally, homicides decreased by 32 percent between September 2024 and September 2025.

“As the president highlighted on Sunday in her report marking the first year of her administration, there was a 32 percent decrease from last September to this one,” she said.

However, as Animal Político reported, the national drop is not as significant when considering the January through September timeframe. In the first nine months of 2025, there was only a 19 percent decrease in homicides compared to the same period in 2024.