AFP
An expert in Latin American geopolitics claimed in an op-ed published in the New York Times that high-ranking officials in the Trump administration are seeking the end of the Maduro regime through the U.S’s military operation in the Caribbean.
“What some powerful members of the Trump administration want is regime change, and they want it as cheaply as possible,” wrote Christopher Sabatini, a senior fellow for Latin America at the UK’s Chatham House.
Sabatini claimed that even though “the regime in Caracas is certainly not without its sins,” Venezuela is “not one of America’s main illicit drug suppliers.” He went on to quote the Drug Enforcement Administration and note that the country “accounts for very little of the cocaine that enters the U.S., and it plays almost no role in the fentanyl trade.”
That is why Sabatini claims the real reason for the large military deployment in the Caribbean and the strikes on vessels is sending a message to authoritarian President Nicolas Maduro: “Your days are numbered.”
The expert clarified that it is unlikely that U.S. troops will invade Venezuela, but that their presence, and perhaps drone strikes to drug-related targets, could convince the country’s leaders to believe “they are next and that they had best defect and overthrow Mr. Maduro.”
In another passage of the piece, Sabatini said President Donald Trump has always planned a “speedy regime change” in Venezuela, but he didn’t manage to accomplish one in his first term. The current strategy, he said, “appears to be born out of Mr. Trump’s desire for vindication — and revenge.”
He then wonders what would happen if the current actions don’t end with the military overthrowing Maduro, noting that the military deployment is a “significant and risky allocation of U.S. assets that are badly needed elsewhere.”
The article concludes by warning that countries like Mexico, Brazil and Colombia would “almost certainly go to great lengths to prevent the U.S. military from starting a war on Venezuelan soil.” Therefore, the administration “should take advantage of the diplomatic anxiety it has created to “encourage regional allies and European governments to throw their weight behind a democratic transition.” “Guided missiles tend to deliver chaos, not democracy,” he ended.
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