Border Cities See Continued Drop in Violent Crime and Homicides, Contrary to GOP Rhetoric

Last week, the FBI released its annual Uniform Crime Report, confirming that overall crime rates dropped across the United States in 2024. One of the most revealing findings, however, was that several U.S.-Mexico border cities—frequently portrayed in political rhetoric as hotbeds of violence—were, in fact, safer than many parts of the country.

An independent analysis by Axios looked at 11 border cities across four states: Brownsville, McAllen, Laredo, Eagle Pass, Del Rio and El Paso in Texas; Sunland Park in New Mexico; Nogales and Yuma in Arizona; and Calexico and San Diego in California. The study found that these cities had an average violent crime rate of 356.5 incidents per 100,000 residents in 2024, slightly below the national average of 359.1, according to FBI data.

The gap was even more striking when it came to homicide. Four of the 11 cities — Del Rio, Eagle Pass, Sunland Park and Nogales — reported zero homicides last year. Even in El Paso and Yuma, where homicide rates were the highest among the group, the figures remained well below the national average. Both cities reported 2.9 homicides per 100,000 residents, compared to a national average of five per 100,000.

Taken together, the 11 cities had a combined homicide rate of just 2.5 per 100,000—half the national average.

These numbers directly contradict the long-standing claims from President Donald Trump and other Republican figures who have spent years linking undocumented immigration to increased crime. A substantial body of research, however, shows the opposite: immigrants, including those without legal status, are statistically less likely to commit crimes than native-born U.S. citizens, according to the American Immigration Council.

Still, immigration and crime remained a central theme of Trump’s messaging during the 2024 presidential campaign. In the only debate between Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, held on September 10, the now-president claimed that “crime here is up and through the roof,” blaming immigration for the alleged surge.

He also accused the Biden administration of having “let many millions of criminals” into the country and repeated the debunked assertion that other nations are sending their worst offenders to the United States. When moderator David Muir cited FBI statistics that contradicted his narrative, Trump dismissed the data as “a fraud.”

But FBI and Axios figures tell a different story. Border communities—most of them with majority Latino populations—already had relatively low crime rates before Trump returned to office. Early 2025 data suggests that crime has continued to fall, even as the new administration has cut millions in federal funding for local violence prevention programs.

According to Axios, the only border city experiencing a rise in homicides this year is El Paso, which saw a 42 percent increase during the first half of 2025, based on data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA).